Pope Francis has passed away at the age of 88. He passed away on Easter Monday, just hours after he offered a blessing following the Easter mass led by Cardinal Angelo Comastri in St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican. 

Jorge Mario Bergoglio, born in Argentina, became the first Latin American pope to head the Catholic Church. Francis has done this since he became pope on March 13, 2025. His rule concluded officially at 7:35 am local Rome time on Monday, April 21, 2025. 

Francis' passing triggers a sequence of rites and ceremonies that will culminate in the cardinals convening within the Sistine Chapel, where their Conclave will formally designate his replacement. Historical records indicate that new popes are usually appointed within 15 to 20 days following a pope’s death. 

The papacy of Pope Benedict XVI, the final pope to follow a pope in death, commenced on April 19, 2005, 17 days after Pope John Paul II passed away on April 2, 2005. 

Pope’s Departure Bettors’ Defeat 

Francis’ passing signifies that $1 million in wagers placed on the prediction betting platform Polymarket will probably be considered losses. Polymarket, a peer-to-peer betting exchange focused mainly on cryptocurrency, established a market in February following Francis’s hospitalization, posing the question to bettors whether a new pope will be elected in 2025. 

Wagerers expected Francis’ recovery, as over $1 million was staked on the bet, “No new pope in 2025.” Following the pope's passing, those shares now carry implied odds of under 1%. 

The Polymarket market, “Who will be the next pope?” has over $2.7 million on its result, with $1,000,570 wagered on “no new pope.” For individuals who wagered on the leading candidates to replace Francis, their investments are currently quite appealing. 

Italy-born Pietro Parolin, 70, the recently former Cardinal Secretary of State, is seen as the frontrunner with implied odds of 36%. Francis designated Parolin as secretary, a position that ended with the pope’s death. In his role as secretary, Parolin managed all political and diplomatic affairs of the Vatican City and the Holy See. 

Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, born in the Philippines, is another leading candidate with implied odds of 26%. Tagle holds numerous progressive opinions similar to Francis’, including the ex-pope’s backing of LGBTQ+ individuals and divorced Catholics who have remarried. 

No other Cardinal or Catholic leader has suggested probabilities higher than 10%. 

Papal Props 

In contrast to its main rival, Kalshi, which follows regulations set by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and thus does not operate markets on the papacy, Polymarket is functioning in a wild-west setting where adherence to rules, ethics, and social norms is uncommon. For example, Polymarket offers numerous contracts related to the pope that may upset some Catholics. 

"Will the next pope be gay?” is one such contract. About $52K has been bet, with the bulk of the action on “no.”

"Will the next pope be trans?” also has implied odds of less than 1%. Roughly $18K has been wagered there.

Polymarket gamblers think there’s an 11% likelihood that the upcoming pope will be Black. Regarding the timing of the next pope's announcement, prior to May 9 suggests a probability of 59%.